The Oracle keeps score.

The Oracle estimates the probability of real events, records each estimate before the outcome is known, and scores it against what actually happened. This page is that score — shown in full, wins and misses alike.

Source: live Kalshi event markets · Updated Jun 13, 2026 · No performance claims

Resolved44

Brier score0.21coin-flip = 0.25

Predicted51%average confidence

Actual36%observed rate

perfect calibration our record · size = sample count

How to read it

Each dot is a band of predictions grouped by confidence. Its position is the average probability we assigned (across) versus how often those events actually resolved yes (up). Dot size is the number of resolved predictions in the band.

The dashed line is perfect calibration — where a stated 70% comes true 70% of the time. Dots below the line mean we were overconfident; above means too cautious.

Today the Oracle runs overconfident: it predicts 51% on average, and 36% actually happens — a gap of 14 points. We show it because a record you can check is worth more than a number you have to trust.

The record, by confidence band

Confidence bandPredictedActualResolvedRead

10-20%16%10%10Overconfident

20-30%26%23%13On line

50-60%57%0%1Overconfident

60-70%70%50%2Overconfident

70-80%73%67%3On line

80-90%84%56%9Overconfident

90-100%93%67%6Overconfident

Bands with no predictions are omitted · 44 resolved across 7 bands

How the Oracle works

For each open question on a live event market, the Oracle builds an order-book view and produces a probability. That estimate is timestamped and stored before the market resolves, so the record cannot be edited after the fact.

When the world answers, the outcome is scored against the estimate. The running Brier score and the calibration curve above are the only résumé the Oracle keeps.

What this is, and is not

This is a young record — 44 resolved predictions is enough to show a tendency, not to prove a track record. The sample will grow, and these numbers will move; some bands rest on a handful of events.

Nothing here is a performance claim, investment advice, or an offer of advisory services. It is a measurement of one system’s calibration, published as it stands.

Oracle · Live calibration · Jun 13, 2026

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